Global Perspectives at FII7: Changemakers on the Future of Finance

From October 24-26 2023, the Future Investment Initiative (FII) held its 7th edition conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, under the theme “The New Compass.” Among the marquee sessions was the “Board of Changemakers” panel on October 24 at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center.

The session, moderated by Carlyle Co-Founder David Rubenstein, featured a powerhouse lineup of global financial leaders: H.E. Yasir Al-Rumayyan (Governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund), Ray Dalio (Founder of Bridgewater Associates), Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan Chase), Laurence D. Fink (CEO of BlackRock), Jane Fraser (CEO of Citigroup), Dr. Patrice Motsepe (Founder, African Rainbow Minerals), Noel Quinn (CEO of HSBC), Stephen A. Schwarzman (Co-Founder of Blackstone), Neil Shen (Founding Partner and Managing Partner of HSG), David Solomon (CEO of Goldman Sachs), and Shemara Wikramanayake (CEO of Macquarie Group).

In just over an hour, the panel covered a wide range of topics, including the global macroeconomic outlook, the rise of artificial intelligence, climate change and ESG investing, and opportunities in emerging markets. Below are key takeaways from the discussion.

A Complex Economic Picture

A dominant theme was the global economy’s uncertain trajectory in the face of inflation, rising interest rates, and mounting debt.

Legendary macro investor Ray Dalio framed the conversation by outlining five long-term forces that have shaped economic cycles historically: (1) the debt, money, and interest rate cycle; (2) internal domestic order or disorder; (3) international geopolitical power shifts; (4) acts of nature (e.g. pandemics, climate shocks); and (5) technological innovation. Dalio noted that by many measures – from high debt levels and wealth gaps to great power rivalry – today’s world bears resemblance to the volatile 1930s–40s period. Larry Fink echoed that view, saying inflation is likely to stay elevated and interest rates will remain high due to structural forces like populism and supply chain realignment.

Citigroup’s Jane Fraser added that global business leaders are adapting to a world of heightened uncertainty and fragmentation. In the wake of recent conflicts and shocks, she observed a “new ‘S’ in ESG – Security,” meaning a focus on energy security, food security, defense, and financial security has come to the forefront. Companies and countries alike are rethinking supply chains and emphasizing resilience, even if globalization continues in a more cautious form. Fraser noted that managing through this environment requires “big ears and thick skin” for any CEO – listening carefully and staying resilient amid criticism and volatility. Her comments underscored that globalization is not disappearing but evolving, with leaders building buffers against interconnected risks.

Technology and AI: Transformative Potential and Challenges

Technological advancement – especially the rise of artificial intelligence – was another focal point, approached with both enthusiasm and caution. Several speakers were bullish on AI’s potential but pointed to infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory concerns.

As host of the conference, Yasir Al-Rumayyan emphasized Saudi Arabia’s keen interest in AI as a force for progress, while acknowledging the need for global cooperation to ensure it benefits everyone. Al-Rumayyan noted that the recent boom in generative AI is “just the tip of the iceberg,” and that realizing AI’s promise will require massive investments in infrastructure – from advanced microchips to data centers – as well as frameworks to use AI responsibly.

A critical challenge he raised was the energy intensity of AI: one day of ChatGPT training, he said, uses the equivalent electricity of 26,000 U.S. homes. Others noted that productivity gains from AI are real but will take time to scale.

Representing the venture capital perspective, HSG Founding and Managing Partner Neil Shen shared a long-term perspective on technology investment – stressing hard work, patience, and support for entrepreneurs as keys to value creation. Shen provided a grounded view from the tech startup arena. He noted that investing in China had ever been easy – “you have to work very hard” given the fierce competition and 24/7 work ethic in China’s tech sector. Shen cited the “996” work culture (working 9am to 9pm, six days a week) and noted that both startup founders and investors must be prepared to work just as hard to build successful companies.

He emphasized taking a long-term horizon when investing in innovation. Both economies and businesses go through cycles, Shen said, so patient capital is essential; venture and growth investments may take years to pay off, and one must be willing to ride out short-term ups and downs.

Shen’s philosophy is simple: support entrepreneurs with capital, mentorship, and patience. Despite short-term regulatory or geopolitical noise, he believes innovation will keep coming—especially from younger generations. “Every time I talk to young CEOs, I walk away more optimistic,” he said.

Others on the panel echoed positive notes on technology. BlackRock’s Larry Fink predicted that the convergence of AI and robotics will spur a productivity boom in coming years, ultimately proving deflationary and helping to solve some inflation problems. Several panelists marveled at recent breakthroughs in healthcare and science – from revolutionary diabetes and obesity treatments to promising Alzheimer’s therapies – as signs that innovation is accelerating to improve lives.

Climate Change and ESG: Balancing Growth with Responsibility

Climate change was a recurring theme, often tied to infrastructure. Macquarie Group’s Shemara Wikramanayake made an impassioned case that sustainability and economic development can go hand in hand. She noted that infrastructure investment is fundamentally about raising living standards – providing reliable energy, clean water, transportation, and digital connectivity to communities. In her view, scaling up infrastructure in emerging economies is one of the best ways to address climate and inequality together.

For instance, she pointed out over a billion people still lack electricity and about half of those also lack safe water. Investing in renewable power, modern utilities, and transport networks not only cuts emissions but also lifts people out of poverty and creates a more stable world.

She also emphasized the importance of public-private partnership – governments setting clear policies and private sector bringing expertise and capital – to de-risk green investments. Countries like Australia (her home market) have attracted major capital for clean energy and transport projects by providing a stable regulatory climate and investment incentives, a model she noted Saudi Arabia is also pursuing.

Overall, the panel agreed that addressing climate change is a multi-decade challenge requiring global coordination.

Investing in Emerging Markets: Opportunities in Africa and Asia

Emerging markets from Africa to Asia were highlighted as engines of future growth, provided investors take a thoughtful, long-term approach. Dr. Patrice Motsepe spoke about the potential he sees across Africa. “Africa has to continue to be globally competitive and an exciting destination for investment, both domestically and globally,” he said.

As one of Africa’s leading businessmen and philanthropists, Motsepe acknowledged the continent faces challenges, but he pointed to a new generation of young African leaders and entrepreneurs who are among the brightest in the world. Many have trained abroad and are returning home with talent and ambition. The key, he noted, is creating the right conditions to harness that talent.

He also dispelled the myth that “there isn’t any capital in Africa” as misinformed, citing the fact that African financial institutions manage significant assets (his firm owns a stake in a financial group with over $80 billion in assets). The real task is channeling both local and international capital into productive investments on the continent.

Motsepe sees technology as transformative for Africa, mentioning that some of the world’s fastest-growing economies are African – albeit from a low base – and sectors like fintech, agri-tech, and telecom are leapfrogging traditional models.

Neil Shen’s input centered on China and broader Asia. He reiterated that China remains a compelling long-term investment destination – but one must be strategic and patient. He noted that China’s economy, like others, has cycles and policy shifts that can create volatility.

The past few years saw regulatory tightening in tech and a pandemic slowdown, which worried some Western investors. However, Shen maintains confidence in China’s fundamentals: a huge market with an increasingly innovation-driven economy. His advice was to focus on backing capable entrepreneurs who can adapt to changes. “Take a long-term view and stick around, even when some businesses go through ups and downs,” he advised.

Shen’s perspective was echoed by HSBC’s Noel Quinn, who, as a global banker, has a foot in both the East and West. Quinn discussed China’s outlook in comparison to Europe’s, noting that China has near-term pressures after some “policy corrections,” but he is “still very confident of the growth opportunities in China” in the medium term. Europe, by contrast, is facing more immediate headwinds – an energy shock, high inflation, and low growth. This dichotomy suggests that Asia, and China in particular, may resume its role as a global growth driver once it stabilizes post-COVID, whereas Europe has a tougher road to recovery.

Closing Thoughts

By the panel’s end, the message was clear: while the world’s challenges are formidable, they are not insurmountable if we harness the collective expertise, creativity, and determination present in rooms like these.

Rubenstein closed the panel by asking each participant what makes them optimistic. Answers ranged from advances in AI and medicine to the spirit of entrepreneurship and the resilience of young people.

Shen’s responded by saying that the next generation of founders is already hard at work — and with the right capital, mentorship, and time, they’ll build the companies that define the future.

Watch the full panel discussion below.